By Donal Gallagher, Roland Lichters, Sharyn O’Halloran, and Roland Stamm
The non-cleared over-the-counter (OTC) derivative market is estimated at $493 trillion notional . One of the central triggers of the 2008 Financial Crisis was financial institutions’ excessive exposure to counterparty risk. These exposures peaked at over $4.5 trillion in 2008 . The response of the global regulatory community to the financial crisis has been to introduce regulations and standards aimed at reducing the amount of counterparty credit risk in the financial system. These initiatives gave rise, for example, to the introduction of mandatory clearing for certain common classes of derivatives (cleared derivatives) and more recently the introduction of similar standards for non-cleared derivatives . The primary means promoted to mitigate risk are mandatory variation margin (collateral against today’s value) and mandatory initial margin (collateral against the change in valuation in the event of default). The total amount of initial margin introduced as a result of these changes is estimated at $315 billion for US banks alone . The regulatory expectation is that most derivatives classes will ultimately be subjected to mandatory clearing; however, the current volume and the slow rate of convergence toward mandatory clearing suggest that large volumes of derivative contracts will continue to be subject to the non-cleared OTC regime for the foreseeable future.